基于ICEEMDAN分解与SE重构和DBO-LSTM的滑坡位移预测
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西安工程大学电子信息学院 西安 710600

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TN306;TP18;P642.22

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国家自然科学基金(62203344)、陕西省自然科学基础研究计划(2022JM-322)、陕西省教育厅服务地方专项(22JC036)资助


Landslide displacement prediction based on ICEEMDAN decomposition and SE reconstruction and DBO-LSTM
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School of Electronic Information, Xi′an Polytechnic University,Xi′an 710600, China

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    摘要:

    滑坡位移预测是防灾减灾的一项重要工作,针对位移分解后趋势项和周期项重构的合理性问题以及周期项位移预测精度不高的问题,提出了一种改进的自适应噪声完备集合经验模态分解(ICEEMDAN)、样本熵(SE)以及蜣螂算法(DBO)优化的长短期记忆网络(LSTM)组合模型进行位移预测。以八字门滑坡为研究对象,利用ICEEMDAN方法将滑坡累计位移进行分解,并用样本熵值表征分解得到的子序列,将其重构为趋势项和周期项位移。之后利用LSTM模型预测趋势项和周期项位移;通过灰色关联度的方法确定周期项位移的影响因素。考虑到LSTM网络中超参数的随机性会影响模型预测精度,引入蜣螂优化算法获取LSTM最优超参数,最终将预测得到的趋势项和周期项位移叠加得到累计位移。本文所提的ICEEMDAN-SE-DBO-LSTM模型预测周期项位移的RMSE、MAE、R2 3项指标分别为1.803 mm、1.584 mm、0.988,相较于DBO-BP,LSTM,GRU和BP模型预测效果更优,证明了模型的有效性。

    Abstract:

    Landslide displacement prediction is an important task in disaster prevention and mitigation. Aiming at the rationality problem of trend term and period term reconstruction after displacement decomposition as well as the problem of low accuracy of period term displacement prediction, a combined model of improved adaptive noise complete ensemble empirical modal decomposition (ICEEMDAN), sample entropy (SE), and dung beetle optimization algorithm (DBO) optimization of the long- and short-term memory network (LSTM) is presented displacement prediction is performed. Taking the Bazimen landslide as the research object, the cumulative displacement of the landslide was decomposed using the ICEEMDAN method, and the subsequence obtained from the decomposition was characterized by the sample entropy value, which was reconstructed into the trend term and the period term displacements. After that, the LSTM model is used to predict the trend term and the period term displacements. The influence factors of the period term displacement are determined by the method of gray correlation. Considering that the randomness of hyperparameters in the LSTM network affects the model prediction accuracy, the dung beetle optimization algorithm is introduced to obtain the optimal hyperparameters of the LSTM, and finally the predicted trend term and period term displacements are superimposed to obtain the cumulative displacement. The ICEEMDAN-SE-DBO-LSTM model proposed in this paper predicts the period term displacement with the RMSE, MAE and R2 of 1.803 mm, 1.584 mm and 0.988, respectively, which is better than the DBO-BP, LSTM, GRU and BP models, and proves the effectiveness of the model.

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封青青,李丽敏,陈飞阳,张碧涵,余兵.基于ICEEMDAN分解与SE重构和DBO-LSTM的滑坡位移预测[J].电子测量技术,2024,47(7):80-87

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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-07-10
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