Traditional explosion vibration velocity prediction models are mostly applied in mines and rock mass blasting. There is little research on the surface vibration velocity model of near earth blasting, and the prediction accuracy is low. In order to study the surface vibration intensity model of near earth blasting, a simulation model of near earth blasting surface vibration velocity was established based on LS-DYNA analysis software. Through dimensional analysis, the influence factor of vibration wave propagation velocity was introduced, and an improved model of surface vibration peak velocity was established. The velocity model was subjected to multiple nonlinear regression analysis through simulation data. Finally, the accuracy of the improved model in this paper was verified by experimental application. The results showed that the average relative error predicted by the improved model in this paper was 11.33% through simulation data fitting, while the average relative errors predicted by the two classical models were 34.05% and 31.67%, respectively. The average relative error of the improved prediction model in predicting the vibration velocity of the experimental measurement point was 8.28%, and the prediction errors of both classical models were higher than 44%. Therefore, the improved model in this article has a significant improvement in prediction accuracy compared to existing classical models, and can better characterize the intensity of surface vibration and reflect the attenuation law of peak velocity of surface vibration. It can provide some theoretical basis for predicting the peak velocity model of surface vibration in near earth explosion tests.