基于BOX-COX变换与改进核密度估计潮流计算
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三峡大学 电气与新能源学院,湖北 宜昌 443002

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TM744

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国家自然科学基金项目(51477090)


Load flow calculation based on box-cox transform and improved kernel density estimation
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School of Electrical and New Energy,China Three Gorges University,YiChang,443002,China

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    摘要:

    为研究多个光伏电厂出力存在相关性下的概率潮流计算,提出一种基于BOX-COX变换法与改进的非参数核密度估计的多光伏发电厂联合概率潮流的计算方法。首先,为描述多光伏电厂出力的相关性及强度,结合Gumbel Copula函数和Gini系数建立联合密度函数;然后,基于Box-Cox正态变换法和改进LDU三角分解法分别将光伏出力正态化和独立化处理并对光伏出力进行综合建模,根据半不变量法与Cornish-Fisher级数展开计算节点电压、支路潮流的概率分布,并将该计算结果分别与传统非参数核密度估计和蒙特卡洛方法进行对比。实际算例仿真结果表明,该方法计算精度高、时间短,仅用时3.17s,有一定的实用性且解决传统蒙特卡洛方法效率较低问题。

    Abstract:

    In order to study the probability power flow calculation of multiple power plants with output correlation.A combined probabilistic power flow calculation method based on Box-Cox transform and nonparametric kernel density model is proposed for multiple photovoltaic power plants.Firstly, combining Gumbel Copula function and Gini coefficient, the density function is established to describe the correlation and intensity of photovoltaic output.Then, based on Box-Cox normal transformation method and improved LDU triangulation method, the PV output is normalized and independent respectively,and comprehensive modeling of PV output is carried out. Finally, the Cumulant Method combined with Cornish-Fisher series expansion is used to calculate the probability power flow, and the probability distribution of node voltage and branch power flow is obtained and the results are compared with traditional nonparametric kernel density estimation and Monte Carlo method.The simulation results of a practical example show that the proposed method has high accuracy and less time,it took just 3.17 seconds,it has certain practicability and solves the problem of low efficiency of the traditional Monte Carlo method.

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刘会家,江旭旭.基于BOX-COX变换与改进核密度估计潮流计算[J].电子测量技术,2022,45(14):65-70

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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-04-08
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